Coffee Prices Today, September 26: Arabica Extends Gains, Robusta Turns Lower

Arabica coffee prices extended their rally for a second consecutive day, supported by sharply declining exchange inventories. In contrast, robusta prices dropped by as much as 125 USD/ton after it became clear that Typhoon Ragasa would not affect Vietnam’s coffee-growing regions.

Global Coffee Price Update

At the close of trading on September 25:

• On the London exchange, November 2025 robusta futures fell 2.96% (down 125 USD/ton) to 4,094 USD/ton, marking the lowest level in six weeks.
• January 2026 contracts slipped 2.46% (down 103 USD/ton) to 4,082 USD/ton.

On the New York exchange:

• December 2025 arabica futures rose 0.98% (up 3.6 US cents/pound) to 371.35 US cents/pound.
• March 2026 contracts added 0.88% (up 3.05 US cents/pound) to 351.45 US cents/pound.

According to Reuters and Barchart, the market closed mixed, with robusta plunging to a six-week low. The decline was mainly driven by forecasts showing that the remnants of Typhoon Ragasa would not impact Vietnam’s coffee regions, easing fears that heavy rain and strong winds could damage crops.

Trading activity in Vietnam remains subdued ahead of the new harvest season. Supplies of green coffee beans are still limited, while weather conditions in Indonesia have turned favorable for the crop’s second development stage.

Arabica Supported by Falling Inventories

Meanwhile, arabica futures on ICE continued to rise, extending gains from the previous session thanks to shrinking inventories.

• Exchange-monitored stocks totaled 601,717 bags as of September 24, down 14,186 bags from the previous day and at their lowest level in 18 months.
• Just one month ago, stocks were at 729,934 bags.
• As of September 25, ICE-certified arabica stocks had dropped further to 579,961 bags, also a one-and-a-half-year low.
• ICE-certified robusta stocks stood at 6,464 lots by the end of last week, the lowest in nearly two months.

Focus on U.S.–Brazil Trade Talks

The market is also watching the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, which could determine whether the U.S. will adjust its 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee.

President Lula told reporters he hopes the talks will help improve bilateral relations, following their agreement to meet during discussions on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York on September 23.

According to Bloomberg, U.S. tariffs have already made Brazilian producers and traders more cautious, with exports to the U.S. seeing a sharp decline in August.

Eduardo Carvalhaes, an analyst at the brokerage Escritório Carvalhaes, noted that the coffee market is likely to remain volatile and unstable in the near term due to speculative activity.

“We do not have sufficient inventories in either producing or consuming countries. The balance between global production and demand is likely to remain fragile,” Carvalhaes said, adding that weather conditions will play a decisive role in determining the scale of Brazil’s next harvest. While it is expected to be larger than this year’s, he cautioned that it will “not necessarily be a bumper crop.”