Domestic Coffee Prices in Vietnam on September 9
To begin, here is the latest update on Vietnam’s domestic coffee market this morning. Following the global upward trend, prices in the Central Highlands provinces surged sharply, increasing by 1,800 to 2,000 VND per kg compared to yesterday.
The national average purchasing price has once again reached 115,000 VND/kg.
- In Đắk Nông, the highest price is reported at 115,300 VND/kg (up 2,000 VND).
- In Đắk Lắk, prices stand at 115,000 VND/kg (up 1,800 VND).
- In Gia Lai, farmers are selling at 114,800 VND/kg (up 2,000 VND).
- In Lâm Đồng, prices are slightly lower at 114,000 VND/kg (up 2,000 VND).
Domestic prices are moving in line with international markets, where robusta rose by $178/ton and arabica by 12.2 US cents/lb. Persistent drought in Brazil’s coffee regions has triggered concerns about the upcoming harvest during the critical flowering phase, supporting the bullish momentum.
Global Coffee Market Update
At the close of trading on September 8, on the London exchange, spot robusta coffee for September 2025 delivery surged 3.98% (up $178) to $4,646/ton. The November 2025 contract climbed 2.81% (up $121) to $4,430/ton.
On the New York exchange, arabica coffee for September 2025 delivery also rallied strongly, rising 3.16% (12.2 US cents/lb) to 397.8 US cents/lb. The December 2025 contract advanced 3% (11.2 US cents/lb) to 384.85 US cents/lb.
According to Barchart, arabica reached its highest level in one week. The ongoing drought in Brazil’s coffee belt, especially before the flowering stage, has sparked worries about reduced yields and helped lift prices.
Brazil’s Weather and Crop Forecast
Weather agency Somar Meteorologia reported that Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing state, received no rainfall during the week ending September 6.
Additional support for prices came from Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab), which reduced its 2025 arabica production forecast to 35.2 million bags, a 4.9% drop from its May projection of 37 million bags. Conab also lowered its total 2025 coffee production forecast to 55.2 million bags, down 0.9% from the earlier 55.7 million bags estimate.
Global Exports and Stock Levels
The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that global coffee exports in July 2025 fell 1.6% year-on-year to 11.6 million bags. From October 2024 to July 2025, cumulative exports slipped 0.3% compared to the same period last season, totaling 115.615 million bags.
Coffee stocks remain tight. ICE-monitored arabica inventories dropped to a 1.25-year low of 686,863 bags last Wednesday before recovering slightly to 695,884 bags on Monday. ICE-monitored robusta stocks fell to a 1.5-month low of 6,552 lots on August 28, then edged up to 6,644 lots as of September 8.
Tariff Pressures and the U.S. Market
Concerns about U.S. coffee supply due to tariffs are also supporting prices. American importers have reportedly canceled new contracts for Brazilian green coffee following the 50% tariff imposed on imports, tightening supplies in the U.S. — a country that sources nearly one-third of its green coffee from Brazil.
U.S. President Donald Trump recently signed a decree granting tariff exemptions on 45 product categories, effective September 8. However, these exemptions apply only to trade partners that have signed framework agreements with Washington.
Notably, the exemption list targets products the U.S. “cannot self-supply”—items that cannot be grown, extracted, or produced domestically, or are insufficient to meet demand. These moves have fueled optimism that tariff policies on coffee could see adjustments in the near future.
Vietnam Coffee Export Performance
According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, the country exported over 1.4 million bags of coffee in August, a 12.9% increase compared to the same month last year.
However, in the first 11 months of the current coffee season (October 2024 – August 2025), Vietnam’s coffee exports totaled 22.68 million bags, a decline of 757,865 bags, or 3.23% lower than the same period last season. Vietnam continues to hold its position as the world’s largest producer and exporter of robusta.
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