Robusta and Arabica Prices Surge as Cold Front Threatens Brazil Crop

Coffee Prices Surge Amid Frost Fears in Brazil

July 23, 2025 – Global coffee prices reversed their previous downtrend and surged sharply today as frost warnings in Brazil sparked fears of crop damage.

On the London ICE exchange, Robusta futures soared, with the September 2025 contract closing at $3,289/ton, up $102 or 3.2% from the previous session. The November contract also rose significantly, adding $98 to settle at $3,262/ton. These gains erased early losses and marked a strong rebound for Robusta prices.

Meanwhile, on the New York ICE, Arabica coffee saw more moderate but still notable gains. The September 2025 contract increased by 4.40 US cents/lb, or 1.51%, to close at 296.35 cents/lb. Other contracts also followed suit, rising across the board.

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Cold Front Threatens Brazilian Coffee Crop

The rally was largely driven by weather concerns. Meteorologists at Climatempo forecast that a cold air mass will sweep through Brazil’s coffee-growing regions later this week, potentially bringing frost that could damage crops.

Frost is one of the most dangerous weather events for coffee plants, particularly when they hit during key developmental stages. Traders reacted quickly to the forecast, covering short positions and triggering a wave of speculative buying—especially in the Robusta market, where short positioning had reached a two-year high.

According to ICE Futures Europe, speculative funds increased their net short positions in Robusta to 1,294 contracts as of July 15, up from 1,163 previously—setting the stage for a sharp short-covering rally.

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Harvest Progress and Stockpile Dynamics

Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, Cooxupé, reported that farmers had harvested 59% of the expected 2025 crop as of July 18, compared to 49.3% the previous week. However, this pace still lags behind the 67.7% harvested during the same period last year, raising further concerns about the impact of potential frost on an already slower-than-usual harvest.

Stockpiles are also influencing market sentiment. Robusta inventories monitored by ICE recently climbed to an 11.5-month high of 6,401 lots, applying some pressure on prices. In contrast, Arabica stocks have fallen to a three-month low of 807,856 bags as of July 22, adding support to New York prices.

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Global Factors in Focus

While weather is the immediate concern, macro factors are also in play. According to Reuters, harvests in Indonesia and Brazil—the world’s second and third largest Robusta exporters—are progressing well with no weather disruptions reported. Meanwhile, a Vietnamese crop survey suggests that the country’s 2025–2026 output may increase by 7%, a potentially bearish development in the longer term.

In the U.S., traders are closely watching whether the Biden administration will proceed with a proposed 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports, set to take effect on August 1. Brazil supplies roughly one-third of America’s coffee imports. While the move could temporarily boost certified stock demand and support prices, analysts caution that higher consumer prices in the U.S. could reduce long-term demand, putting downward pressure on global prices.

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Market Outlook

In the short term, all eyes are on the Brazilian frost threat and its impact on the ongoing harvest. If severe frost materializes, further price spikes are likely—especially in Robusta, where speculative positioning remains a major price driver.

However, the longer-term outlook remains more complex, balancing concerns over stock levels, weather patterns, harvest pace, and global trade policy.